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  • CJ Research Group

Regional Catastrophe Modeling and Risk Assessments

Typhoon is a double-edged sword for the water resources in the island country of Taiwan as well as many countries in the world.  We utilize the up-to-date loss data of typhoons in Taiwan to analyze the interannual variations in the annual aggregate losses (AALs) and develop loss prediction models for the major administrative divisions. Top shows AALs for 2-, 5-, and 10-year return periods, presented by the severity scores (see definition in Chen et al. 2018); bottom shows predicted probability charts with 95% confidence intervals for the variation in maximum gust wind for different cities in Taiwan, conditional on the reference maximum daily rainfall (80 mm).

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